Gold Breaks Below 4300 — Bottom Yet? Oil 108 Heading for 110, 5% Yields | The Gold–Oil Cross Before the FOMC

Gold, oil and yields in one frame

On the eve of the FOMC, the US 10-year broke higher again, with long yields closing in on 5%; Brent is near 110 and WTI around 106. Geopolitics has made supply extremely tight, and inflation has brought hike expectations back. US stocks look weak, but the volume isn't heavy selling; gold has had its "vaccine shot" against hikes — long yields rise further and gold refuses to fall any more. Big V's warning: don't think you can short oil at the top — when it squeezes, it can be vicious.

The market has already "done one hike"

Treasury Secretary Bessent blamed the surge in long yields on global supply chains and geopolitical conflict; Big V asks right back: where do those conflicts come from? Even bigger buybacks can't cap yields, and new debt has to pay 5%+ before anyone will buy. Most officials in the Fed's structure are pro-Trump, and last time only three voted to hike — Big V doesn't think the policy rate will definitely go up this time, but yields squeezing higher is itself an indirect hike. He's also clear: he's not telling anyone to buy — treat the channel as investment education, and don't blindly obey anyone.

Oil: it giveth and it taketh away

Saudi Arabia's east–west pipeline was attacked and shut as a precaution; Saudi formally told Europe it's cutting or cancelling late-September crude cargoes — Europe's hardest physical supply-cut signal. Talks on Hormuz shipping were postponed; the US military keeps escorting, but shipowners' insurance and voyage costs are out of control. When oil squeezes, gasoline and diesel squeeze too, and core energy inflation sticks. Russia and Ukraine keep hitting each other's refineries, leaving Europe and Asia nowhere to turn; the Bank of England stepped in on long gilts, and global yields are resonating at the top.

“Prices go up easy, come down hard.”「加價容易，減價難」Oil spikes, and core energy inflation follows | 19:08 original clip

Gold: a 400-point drop is no surprise

Gold fell from about 4400 through 4300 — short term, rates are holding it down; but with oil going from about 80 to 110, the game has changed. The gold–oil relationship reflects stagflation plus geopolitical panic, and oil rises faster than gold. Big V says a 400-odd drop is no surprise — it's short rates flushing gold out. De-dollarisation is only a minor factor; the core is the whole world printing so much money that it creates a currency-credit problem — a country without oil can't even get its planes in the air, while gold can wait a year or two.

“Central banks buying gold look dumb — but they're smart.”「央行買金係似笨有精」Gold up tens of percent this year is small stuff | 34:41 original clip

A US stock tide going out isn't death; two FOMC scenarios

US stocks are being cleansed, not dying: money is pulled from companies with poor earning power and thrown into quality ones; memory stocks that ran up to excessive multiples will get flushed. Big V won't name names publicly, for fear of a stampede. Around the FOMC he shares two common scenarios: one spike flush then a sharp squeeze higher, or a straight line up. Beginners shouldn't bet heavily on short-term trades; oil is driven by physical supply more than by rates — when there's a real shortage, rates barely matter.