5% Treasuries, Nasdaq Still at Records, Gold Stuck at 4400 | Oil's Drop Doesn't Mean the Middle East Is Over — AMD Earnings and Humanoid Robots

Gold, oil, US stocks: a wildly split night

Big V opened with this: the 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5% and every asset is being repriced — but high rates don't crush everything. Tonight gold, oil and US stocks all went their own way: gold touched 4400, oil pulled back hard, and US stocks and crypto-tech ripped together. Money is voting with its feet, and the old "high rates are bearish for stocks and gold" playbook is starting to fail.

Gold: stuck at 4400 — don't dump it just because it dips

Gold is stuck around 4400, mainly because roaring US stocks are sucking money away; after the flush it spiked straight back to 4291–4300, which is actually a strong tape. Big V's trading lesson: when it looks like an easy short, it can spike back and kill you — be careful with shorts below 4300. The medium-to-long-term structure hasn't changed: central banks and ETFs are coming back, global deficits and debt keep growing, and every break below 4300 gets bought up fast. Platinum has already squeezed to new highs; palladium and platinum are telling you metals are not in a bear market.

“This market isn't for fucking shorting — it's for finding chances to load up.”「個市唔撚係沽㗎，係揾機會揸貨」Been there: long-term US stocks don't reward bears | 1:14:37 original clip

Oil: a $12 drop doesn't mean the Middle East is done

Oil fell roughly $12 because Iran-related talks eased and the headlines went quiet; Trump himself said the talks may not produce a deal — the point is just a pause. Oil has hard everyday demand, and after a pullback it tends to rally faster than gold. If oil doesn't fall, inflation in the US and Europe is hard to ease; Middle East freight costs and strait risk are still there, and one more blockage reignites short-term risk instantly. Iran isn't strong, but it can make a hell of a mess — the Strait of Hormuz is the real centre of gravity.

Why the Nasdaq keeps hitting records: AI earnings cover the rates

The market is willing to swallow a 5% cost of money because the AI earnings story is big enough to cover it. But this is a partial bull market: the star stocks and the stocks crushed by 5% rates live in two different worlds. Big V then dug into AMD — value for money, cheaper than Nvidia, and the giants are running the numbers on switching or splitting orders; AI agents moving from answering questions to executing tasks; embodied-AI robots reshaping logistics and warehousing. 2026 is the breakout year for humanoid robots; 2027 is when high volume and thin margins kick in.

“You don't fucking buy a company off some crappy chart.”「公司唔撚係睇張膠圖去買㗎」Buy on the business and earnings, not just the chart | 24:46 original clip

Picking stocks: read the numbers, not just the chart

On AMD's earnings, the focus was a strong data-centre business, pressure on gaming chips, and a balance sheet with lots of net cash and manageable debt. Big V's stock-picking logic: operating cash flow, shipments, buybacks, no reckless borrowing, and watch for goodwill and intangible write-downs; patents and in-house AI GPU tech are what make a moat. His closing reminder: don't blindly chase AMD at the highs — lean towards monthly buying and holding long, cut back on heavy short-term trading; and don't fight the trend by shorting tech or the Nasdaq — one line from Trump about better relations with Xi can squeeze it a thousand points.

“Don't fight the trend — fighting it is fucking brutal.”「唔好去逆勢，你逆勢好撚辛苦」Tech stocks are a case in point | 1:03:42 original clip